WHAT IS PEAK OIL
Ian
I have been noticing the phrase Peak Oil is being used a lot concerning global oil prices. What does it mean and how will it effect us in Ireland? Thanks DH, Dunfanaghy.
Reply:
“Peak Oil” refers to the maximum extraction rate of oil, after which the rate of extraction will decline.
It has been found that the extraction of oil always follows more or less a bell-shaped curve: first the oil is discovered and once it starts to be pumped out, the rate increases steadily until it reaches a peak, after which it becomes impossible to pump at the same rate: production will inevitably decline. World discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has been declining ever since, despite considerable improvements in technology, and there is no prospect of any significant new large discoveries. We are currently consuming more than 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered.
This doesn’t actually mean that the world is running out of oil. Globally, it is thought that approximately half of all oil that was laid down in the earth has been extracted. We have currently used about 1 trillion barrels of the 2 trillion barrels that was the legacy from geological vents of over 90million years ago. It is true that there is still a lot of oil left. The problem is really that we are running out of cheap oil. We have picked the low hanging fruit first and both the quality and accessibility of the remaining oil is declining- fast. The light sweet oil that was near the surface has been largely exhausted, as have the more accessible oil fields. Oil companies are starting to look in ever-more inhospitable environments such as the Arctic, Antarctic and deep seas in the quest for more oil.
According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) world oil peak is likely to occur sometime between 2008 and 2010. Some analysts believe we may have already passed the peak and are currently on an uneven plateau. It seems certain however that within a few years, the effects of oil peak will begin to be felt as for the first time in history the amount of available energy in the world begins to decline. ASPO calculate the rate of decline after peak to be about 2% per year. Energy efficiency and more frugal use of energy are certainly important steps we can take, but if the Peak in production is already upon us, we may be forced to make sudden and abrupt changes to our lifestyles if we are to avoid the worst consequences of oil depletion in a world so heavily dependent on oil for the lions share of its economy, trade, industry and general lifestyle.
In addition to production steadily increasing through the 20th Century, so has demand. Unfortunately, while production will now start to decline, demand is still growing- faster than ever, with the emergence of both China and India as major new energy consumers entering the marketplace and looking for their share of the industrial and consumerist lifestyle.
What Peak Oil really means is that there will be a gap between supply and demand. There will be less to go around just as more and more countries want more and more.
HOW WILL IT EFFECT IRELAND
Ireland has become one of the world's most oil-dependent nations in recent years. In fact, Ireland is ranked 7th in the world -. Much of this shift to a high-energy lifestyle has taken place during the Celtic Tiger years. Ireland’s per capita consumption of oil has increased by nearly 60% since 1973, while the EU's average has fallen- and this despite Ireland being one of Europe 's best-placed countries for exploiting wind energy.
At present, Ireland gets 54% of its energy from oil and 23% from natural gas. This masks an even deeper dependency, however, since the transport sector is almost 98% dependent on oil. Since so many aspects of our lives depend upon the transportation of goods and services, as well as commuting to work, any disruption in oil supplies would quickly bring society to a standstill. A taste of what this might entail was experienced in parts of the UK during the truckers’ strike a few years ago, when shops began to run out of simple foodstuffs and other basic necessities within a few days. Unlike the strike, however, Peak Oil will mean that these disruptions will eventually become permanent. Changes will need to be introduced for the supply of these goods, such as growing food more locally.
Now is a golden opportunity to ask these deeper questions about the kind of society we want to live in. There is abundant evidence that simply more growth, more money and more energy will not bring us a higher quality of life or more fulfilment
The main changes we need to effect are a move away from globalisation towards local economies that value and preserve their own stores of natural capital- such as local food supplies, traditional skills, trees and woodlands, the practices of good land use and urban design.
Peak Oil presents an enormous challenge to us all, but if we respond now we may yet be looking forward to a more harmonious future.
For more information on this subject go to the Fuelling the Future website www.fuellingthefuture.org (CLICK ON THE TITLE FOR A LINK)
Environmenal.
Ian
I have been noticing the phrase Peak Oil is being used a lot concerning global oil prices. What does it mean and how will it effect us in Ireland? Thanks DH, Dunfanaghy.
Reply:
“Peak Oil” refers to the maximum extraction rate of oil, after which the rate of extraction will decline.
It has been found that the extraction of oil always follows more or less a bell-shaped curve: first the oil is discovered and once it starts to be pumped out, the rate increases steadily until it reaches a peak, after which it becomes impossible to pump at the same rate: production will inevitably decline. World discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has been declining ever since, despite considerable improvements in technology, and there is no prospect of any significant new large discoveries. We are currently consuming more than 4 barrels of oil for every one discovered.
This doesn’t actually mean that the world is running out of oil. Globally, it is thought that approximately half of all oil that was laid down in the earth has been extracted. We have currently used about 1 trillion barrels of the 2 trillion barrels that was the legacy from geological vents of over 90million years ago. It is true that there is still a lot of oil left. The problem is really that we are running out of cheap oil. We have picked the low hanging fruit first and both the quality and accessibility of the remaining oil is declining- fast. The light sweet oil that was near the surface has been largely exhausted, as have the more accessible oil fields. Oil companies are starting to look in ever-more inhospitable environments such as the Arctic, Antarctic and deep seas in the quest for more oil.
According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) world oil peak is likely to occur sometime between 2008 and 2010. Some analysts believe we may have already passed the peak and are currently on an uneven plateau. It seems certain however that within a few years, the effects of oil peak will begin to be felt as for the first time in history the amount of available energy in the world begins to decline. ASPO calculate the rate of decline after peak to be about 2% per year. Energy efficiency and more frugal use of energy are certainly important steps we can take, but if the Peak in production is already upon us, we may be forced to make sudden and abrupt changes to our lifestyles if we are to avoid the worst consequences of oil depletion in a world so heavily dependent on oil for the lions share of its economy, trade, industry and general lifestyle.
In addition to production steadily increasing through the 20th Century, so has demand. Unfortunately, while production will now start to decline, demand is still growing- faster than ever, with the emergence of both China and India as major new energy consumers entering the marketplace and looking for their share of the industrial and consumerist lifestyle.
What Peak Oil really means is that there will be a gap between supply and demand. There will be less to go around just as more and more countries want more and more.
HOW WILL IT EFFECT IRELAND
Ireland has become one of the world's most oil-dependent nations in recent years. In fact, Ireland is ranked 7th in the world -. Much of this shift to a high-energy lifestyle has taken place during the Celtic Tiger years. Ireland’s per capita consumption of oil has increased by nearly 60% since 1973, while the EU's average has fallen- and this despite Ireland being one of Europe 's best-placed countries for exploiting wind energy.
At present, Ireland gets 54% of its energy from oil and 23% from natural gas. This masks an even deeper dependency, however, since the transport sector is almost 98% dependent on oil. Since so many aspects of our lives depend upon the transportation of goods and services, as well as commuting to work, any disruption in oil supplies would quickly bring society to a standstill. A taste of what this might entail was experienced in parts of the UK during the truckers’ strike a few years ago, when shops began to run out of simple foodstuffs and other basic necessities within a few days. Unlike the strike, however, Peak Oil will mean that these disruptions will eventually become permanent. Changes will need to be introduced for the supply of these goods, such as growing food more locally.
Now is a golden opportunity to ask these deeper questions about the kind of society we want to live in. There is abundant evidence that simply more growth, more money and more energy will not bring us a higher quality of life or more fulfilment
The main changes we need to effect are a move away from globalisation towards local economies that value and preserve their own stores of natural capital- such as local food supplies, traditional skills, trees and woodlands, the practices of good land use and urban design.
Peak Oil presents an enormous challenge to us all, but if we respond now we may yet be looking forward to a more harmonious future.
For more information on this subject go to the Fuelling the Future website www.fuellingthefuture.org (CLICK ON THE TITLE FOR A LINK)
Environmenal.
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